Carlton Wade Through the Muck and Into the Top Four — No Notes

If you watched this one and your footy brain immediately went ‘yeah but the conditions were shocking’ — fair, they were genuinely awful. But Carlton still found a way to win it, and that’s the bit that actually matters when September rolls around.

The Blues got up by 12 points over Hawthorn in what can only be described as a swamp-fest at Ikon Park, and in doing so they’ve cemented themselves in the AFLW top four. Not flirting with it. Not hovering near it. In it. And honestly, as someone who watches this competition as closely as I watch the men’s, this Carlton side is legit scary when it clicks.

Conditions Were Rank, the Footy Was Better

Let’s just set the scene because it matters for context. Wet, windy, the kind of night where handball chains turn into turnover city and every contested mark feels like a small miracle. Normally that sort of weather flattens a game into an ugly arm-wrestle where nobody really deserves the points.

But Carlton didn’t play it safe and hope for the best — they leaned into the contest. Their midfield brigade just kept winning the hard ball at the coalface, over and over, and did the unglamorous stuff that doesn’t always show up on the highlights reel but absolutely shows up on the scoreboard. That’s a top-four trait right there. Good sides find ways to win when the conditions are rubbish, not just when the sun’s out and the ball’s zipping around like a PS5 game.

Hawthorn Weren’t Bad, They Just Got Out-Toughed

I want to be clear here because it’s easy to dunk on the Hawks after a loss like this, but they actually competed hard for large chunks of it. This wasn’t a situation where Hawthorn turned up and had no response — they had periods where they looked the classier side going forward, just couldn’t find the scoreboard impact to match it.

Where it really hurt them was around stoppages in that atrocious second-term weather. Carlton’s clearance work was a cut above, and in conditions like that, clearances basically are the game. You’re not seeing a lot of slick chains from half-back in horizontal rain — it’s who wins it first, who wins it again, and who’s brave enough to put their head over it. Carlton had more of those players on the park than Hawthorn did, simple as that.

Why the Top Four Push Is No Notes

Here’s the thing that gets slept on with Carlton’s season so far — they’re not just winning, they’re winning in different ways. Some weeks it’s been free-flowing stuff through the corridor, other weeks (like this one) it’s been pure defensive-grind, win-the-inside-50-count, make-them-earn-it footy. That versatility is exactly what finals footy demands, because you simply don’t get to choose the conditions or the opposition style in September.

A top-four spot in AFLW is genuinely massive now that the competition has that extra week of finals footy to play with. It’s not just about ladder bragging rights — it’s about a double chance, it’s about controlling your own path, it’s about not needing other results to go your way. Carlton fans have every right to be buzzing about where this team is sitting right now.

• Carlton’s forward structure is giving their smalls way more one-on-one opportunity inside 50
• Their defensive setup has been genuinely stingy across the back half of the season
• The midfield mix of experience and young legs is clicking at exactly the right time

The Bigger Picture for the Competition

As a Lions fan I’m obviously watching all this with one eye on how it affects Brisbane’s own finals picture, because every result up and down that top half of the ladder matters when it’s this tight. But zooming out for a sec — this is genuinely good for the growth of the competition as a whole.

You want quality sides stacking up near the top, you want genuine four-quarter contests like this one, and you want conditions like Wednesday night to actually produce a result that feels earnt rather than a lottery. That’s how you build credibility with casual footy fans who still aren’t fully locked in to AFLW yet. A scrappy, low-scoring arm wrestle in the wet isn’t always great TV, sure, but when both sides are genuinely trying to win it rather than just survive it, that’s the stuff that builds respect for the competition.

Up here in Queensland we’re still fighting the battle of getting AFLW taken as seriously as it desrves, and games like this — gritty, contested, finals-mentality footy in September-like conditions — are exactly the product you want people seeing. It’s not a sideshow. It’s real footy, played hard, with real stakes attached.

What Carlton Need to Nail From Here

The thing about sitting in the top four is it changes the conversation completely. You’re no longer the improving side everyone’s cheering for as an underdog story — you’re a genuine contender, and that comes with scrutiny. Can they back this kind of contested effort up against the other top-four sides who won’t be as easily bullied at the coalface? Can their forward line find consistency when it’s not pouring with rain and teams actually set up properly behind the ball?

Those are fair questions. But on the evidence of this performance, I wouldn’t bet against them. There’s something about a side that can win ugly in the slop that tells you they’ve got the mentality for finals footy, where it’s rarely pretty and rarely easy.

Final Word

Carlton didn’t just survive Wednesday night, they proved something about themselves. Top four in AFLW isn’t gifted to anyone — it’s earnt through exactly the kind of performance we saw at Ikon Park, where the conditions tried their absolute hardest to ruin the contest and the Blues refused to let them.

Big weeks coming for every side near the top of this ladder, mine included. But Carlton have put everyone else in that top-four conversation on notice, and in a competition that’s still fighting for eyeballs and respect, that’s exactly the kind of statement win the comp needed.