Who’s Coming? The AFL Draft Top 100 Contenders Ranked

Sixteen weeks into the home-and-away season and the draft conversation is already louder than the footy at some grounds. And honestly? I love it. Because for clubs doing it tough right now — and for supporters trying to find a silver lining in a horror run — the national draft is the life raft, the promise, the reason you keep watching in late August.

So let’s cut into the latest top 100 rankings and work out who the genuine bolters are, where the value sits, and which positions are going to be at an absolute premium come November’s national draft at Marvel Stadium.

The ranking methodology — and why it matters

Before we get into names, a quick word on how these lists get built. The AFL’s scouting network compiles assessments from state league competitions — the NAB AFL Academy, the Coates Talent League, and state-based under-18 championships. Clubs overlay their own internal reports. Independent draft analysts cross-reference athletic testing at the AFL Draft Combine (held each October) against match vision and GPS data from academies.

What that means in practice: a player’s ranking between now and draft night can shift dramatically. A bloke sitting at pick 12 in June can slide to 25 if he picks up a soft tissue injury or has a form slump. And the reverse. That volatility is exactly what makes these mid-season lists so compelling — and so dangerous to treat as gospel.

The clear number one — and is there a genuine challenger?

The consensus across the major draft analysts hasn’t shifted: there’s one player who sits comfortably atop every credible ranking. A tall, athletic midfielder with elite contested numbers and the kind of kicking efficiency that makes forward-half coaches drool. I won’t speculate on exactly where he lands club-wise — that’s genuinely still fluid — but the gap between him and the second-ranked prospect is measurable.

The number two conversation is more interesting. There are three players legitimately fighting for that second spot. A key forward out of Victoria who is averaging over five score involvements per game at under-18 level. A mature-age midfielder from South Australia who clubs are quietly raving about. And a left-foot running half-back with some of the cleanest disposal numbers we’ve seen from a teenager in recent seasons.

Definately worth watching the NAB League Finals to see if any of them separate from the pack.

The biggest movers — up and down

Every second edition of a draft ranking is defined by its movers. A handful of names have climbed significantly since the first published list.

• A Victorian tall defender has shot into the top 20 after a three-game stretch where his intercept marks and one-on-one numbers were genuinely elite for the age group.
• A Queensland midfielder who was hovering in the 30s has pushed into the top 15 on the back of two dominant NAB League Finals performances and a standout session at a recent AFL Academy training camp in Alberton, South Australia.
• A NSW forward who opened the season as a genuine top-five hope has eased back after a hamstring complaint that limited him to modified training through June. He’s not done — not by a long shot — but clubs will want clarity on his body before committing a high pick.

Picks 20 through 50 are, as usual, where the real drama lives. There are genuinely eight or nine players bunched together in that range who could each make a case for top-20 status if they peak at the right moment.

What positions are clubs chasing hardest?

The positional spread in this draft class is fascinating. And before you say it — yes, I’m aware Collingwood’s list needs are going to colour how I read this. Carn the Pies. But I’m trying to be objective here.

Key forwards. That is the conversation clubs are having hardest right now. The last two national drafts were thin on genuine key forward talent, and the AFL is a competition that still rewards the big man who can take a pack mark and kick truly. This crop has four or five prospects who could develop into genuine first-choice key forwards at AFL level. That’s unusually deep.

Midfield depth is also strong. In fact — and this is where I’ll stick my neck out — I reckon the 20-to-40 range of this draft has more genuine midfield depth than anything we’ve seen since 2021. The athleticism standards have lifted. Kids are coming into state competitions fitter and faster than ever before.

Rucks, on the other hand, remain scarce. There’s one genuine elite ruck prospect in the top 50. After him, there’s a significant drop-off. Any club that has a pick in the 60-to-80 range and is hunting ruck depth should be very aware that the available options thin out fast.

The mature-age sleepers

Every year, one or two mature-age draftees end up being the genuine value picks on draft night. Players who’ve had an extra year in the VFL, SANFL, or WAFL and are simply more AFL-ready than their junior counterparts.

This year’s mature-age crop is strong. There’s a West Australian utility currently playing for a WAFL club who has been clocking 30-plus disposals week-on-week with exceptional efficiency. He wasn’t even on the radar six months ago. He’s teh kind of player a smart list manager targets in the 50s or 60s and gets disproportionate value from.

A couple of VFL-listed players who didn’t progress through last year’s draft are also back in the conversation after genuine development. One of them — a forward-pocket who kicked 44 goals in the VFL last season — has attracted genuine first-round interest from at least two clubs, according to the Phantom Draft analysis published by AFL.com.au in their most recent update.

What Pies fans need to know

Right. Cards on the table. Collingwood’s pick situation entering this draft is being shaped in real time by how the second half of the season plays out. The more games we win — and I bloody well hope we win plenty — the further back our pick slides.

But here’s the thing: Craig McRae and the list management team have shown real nous in recent years. They are not a club that panics. They target specific profiles, they trust their academy system, and they’ve shown willingness to work the trade table creatively. If a prospect of genuine quality falls to wherever the Pies are picking, I back the club to make the most of it.

The area I’d want them targeting? A versatile midfielder who can play inside or outside. The depth through Collingwood’s engine room has been tested hard by injury this year, and adding a dynamic 18-year-old through the draft to grow alongside the existing core makes real sense to me.

The long game — trust the process, not the hype

Here’s my honest take on mid-season draft rankings, and I say this as someone who’s followed every draft obsessively for about 25 years: treat them as a conversation starter, not a verdict.

In 2020, a bloke barely in the top 30 of mid-season rankings went in the top five on draft night after an extraordinary finals campaign. In 2018, the consensus number one prospect barely played AFL football. The rankings shift. Bodies change. Form peaks and troughs.

What the top 100 does well is give us the names to watch for the next four months. And this current crop — genuinely deep in key positions, with a clear number one and a genuinely contested rest of the top ten — is setting up for a draft night that’ll have every AFL supporter glued to the screen.

November can’t come fast enough. And if the Pies land someone who can help us get back to the granny? Even better.

— Daz McAllister, Senior AFL Columnist