Shazza’s Numbers Game: Dogs Bite Back While Bombers Bleed Out
Righto footy fans, grab a calculator because this is a good one. The Bulldogs have knocked over Port Adelaide to sit pretty at 5-2, and meanwhile down in the other result that caught my eye, West Coast beat Essendon to leave the Bombers at a horror 0-7. Two very different stories, both worth a proper dig through the numbers.
Dogs on the up, and it’s not a fluke
I know, I know, Bulldogs fans have been burned before getting excited about a hot patch. But this one’s got legs. Five wins from seven is a 71 per cent strike rate, and on the numbers our percentage has crept up nicely too, we’re now comfortably in the top six for scoring differential across the competition. That’s not just winning ugly, that’s winning with genuine control of games.
The Port result is the standout though. Beating a side that’s been finals-adjacent for a few years now on their own patch, or close enough to it, tells you the list rebuild is actually landing. Data says our inside 50 differential has been positive in five of our seven games this year, which is the engine room doing exactly what good midfield brigades are supposed to do.
What actually beat Port
Wasn’t one thing, it was death by a thousand cuts, which if you ask me is the best way to win footy games because it means depth, not just one bloke having a purple patch. Our clearance work has been consistently around competition average or better, and when you pair that with efficient use of it inside 50 you get the kind of scoreboard pressure that Port just couldn’t answer in the second half.
Also worth flagging, and I say this every single week because it matters every single week: our run and carry off half back has been a genuine weapon. When you can rebound the ball efficiently rather than just hoofing it forward and hoping, you control tempo. Port looked like a side that wanted the game played at their speed and we just… didn’t let them.
The 0-7 problem nobody at Windy Hill wants to look at
Now to the Bombers, and look, I’ll be fair here because kicking a team while they’re down isn’t really my style, but the numbers are the numbers and they’re not pretty. 0-7 is 0-7. There’s no spin on that. West Coast have had a genuinely tough few seasons on-field, and for Essendon’s fightback in the final term to fall short against a side that’s been rebuilding from the bottom up, that’s the bit that should really worry the Bomber faithful.
A final-quarter surge that comes up short is actually one of the more telling signs in footy analytics, because it usually means the fitness and structure are fine, it’s the game management and composure under real pressure that’s letting you down. You can out-run a team in the last twenty minutes and still lose if your skill errors under heat are too high in the previous three quarters.
You can’t fix a season with one big last quarter, you’ve gotta be building the platform for four.
Percentage don’t lie
On the numbers Essendon’s percentage is going to be sitting well under the ton at this point of the year, and when you’re 0-7 with a percentage like that you’re not just having bad luck, you’re getting beaten in more than one phase of the game most weeks. I’d be looking hard at their inside 50 efficiency and their turnover rate in defensive fifty, because those two numbers together usually tell the real story behind a losing streak like this.
Meanwhile the Eagles, and fair play to them, keeping a side winless is no small thing even in a rebuilding year for them too. It shows their younger list is starting to compete for four quarters rather than fading, which any list management nerd like me will tell you is the first sign a rebuild is turning the corner.
Where this leaves the eight
Back to the good stuff. At 5-2 the Dogs are sitting in genuine finals contention, and on the numbers our percentage advantage over the sides just below us on the laddder gives us a bit of breathing room even if results even out a touch over the next month. I’m not getting ahead of myself, seven rounds is seven rounds, but the underlying signs, the clearance work, the inside 50 differential, the defensive efficiency, they’re all trending the right way rather than being one big score against a struggling opponent.
That’s the key difference between us and a team like Essendon right now if I’m honest. Our good performances are coming with genuine underlying numbers behind them, not just a scoreline that flatters. When you beat a competitive side like Port and the process numbers back it up, that’s repeatable. When you go winless after seven rounds and even your good moments, like a final term fightback, aren’t enough, that’s a much harder pattern to break.
What I’ll be watching next
For us Bulldogs fans, the next few weeks are about consolidating rather than getting carried away. On the numbers our run home has a mix of sides above and below us on the ladder, so there’s a real chance to bank points and build percentage further if we keep doing the simple things, contested ball, inside 50 efficiency, defensive pressure.
For Essendon, look, footy’s a funny old game and 0-7 sides have turned seasons around before. But the data suggests it won’t be a quick fix, it’ll need to come from fixing the structural stuff, not just hoping for one big last quarter to snowball into a win.
As for us, five wins from seven with the underlying numbers to match? I’ll take that every day of the week. Go Dogs.
