Wildcard Finals: Why All 10 Flag Fancies Have a Puncher’s Chance
Righto, settle in, because this is the first year of the wildcard round and suddenly ten clubs reckon they’ve got a puncher’s chance at the cup. Over here in the west we’ve watched this competition get carved up by the same six or seven clubs for years while we do the extra travel, so forgive me if I’ve got a bit of a wry smile watching the top six cop a cushy week off while the other four have to fight through an extra final just to get a sniff.
Fremantle sit pretty, but pretty isn’t premiership-proof
Let’s start with the minor premiers, because the background material practically demanded it. Fremantle have banked their first ever men’s minor premiership and that’s a genuinely big deal for footy over here in the west – I’ll give credit where it’s due, even in a claret and blue jumper. Their midfield brigade has been terrific all year, they defend the ball beautifully and the double chance sets them up lovely.
But minor premierships have a habit of turning into September hard-luck stories. Freo’s issue isn’t talent, it’s finals composure – we’ve seen good home-and-away sides go missing when the pressure cranks up two notches. If their tall forward stocks go missing for one week in October, all that lovely percentage means nothing.
The top six’s week off is the biggest advantage nobody’s talking about
This is where the new format gets interesting, and where I reckon the AFL has quietly handed the contest to the sides already sitting comfortable. A week’s break to get bodies right, review the opposition and let the coaches reset the game plan is enormous this time of year. The four wildcard combatants have to win an extra final just to get to where the top six already are, and history tells us that extra 120 minutes of contact footy isn’t free – it costs you players, form and a bit of skin off the bones heading into a prelim.
So any side sneaking through from seventh to tenth needs a level of durability and depth that not many squads have got. It’s a great story if they pull it off, don’t get me wrong, but the ledger is stacked against them structurally, not just on raw talent.
Why the top-six sides can all point to a flaw
Every one of the sides resting easy this week has got a leaky tap somewhere. Some can’t defend the switch of play under real heat, some are too reliant on one or two stars in the guts, some have a key defender who’s been managed all year and nobody quite knows if the body will hold for six weeks straight. September has this brutal way of finding exactly that weakness and shoving a microphone in its face.
That’s the beauty – and the cruelty – of finals footy. The teams that look like machines in August can turn to jelly the second an underdog gets hold of the contest and refuses to let go. We’ve seen minor premiers bow out in straight sets before and we’ll see it again, probably this year.
The wildcard mob: dangerous, undercooked, or both?
The four teams starting in the wildcard round are the ones I find genuinely fascinating. They’re the sides who’ve had to win footy games all year under real pressure just to hang on to a finals spot, which in theory should toughen them up for what’s coming. Nothing sharpens a list like a September do-or-die from round one of finals.
The flip side is obvious – they’re the form line nobody trusts completely, the inconsistent unit that could just as easily lose by 40 as knock off a top-four fancy. If one of these four can string together four straight weeks of finals footy without a let-down performance, they’ll be the most battle-hardened team left standing by grand final day. That’s a genuine premiership pathway, it’s just a much, much harder road than the one the top six are strolling down.
Where does that leave the rest of the competition, genuinely
I reckon this format rewards the sides with a settled forty and a coach who trusts his structures under fatigue, more than it rewards the flashiest list on paper. The extra final for the bottom four means depth matters more than ever – not just star power, but the bloke at pick 38 who can slot in and not lose you the contest.
For the top six, the challenge is different: don’t get complacent off that week’s break, because rustiness after a bye has cruelled finals campaigns before. A week off sounds lovely until you turn up flat in a qualifying final against a team that’s already had a taste of finals intensity.
The honest verdict from over here in the west
Look, I’ll be straight with you – I reckon the top-six sides remain the most likely premiers purely because of that week’s rest and the head start it gives them heading toward the granny. Fremantle’s minor premiership means something real, but plenty of Australian Rules history says it’s no guarantee, and I wouldn’t be shocked if the club that lifts the cup finished outside the top two.
You can make a genuine, honest case for every one of the ten teams still alive – and an equally honest case against every single one of them too. That’s exactly what makes this new wildcard era such a ripper watch.
As for the Eagles, we’re not in this particular conversation this year, and I won’t pretend otherwise – but don’t think for a second we’re not over here taking notes on how this new finals system plays out. Because when we’re back challenging for flags, and we will be, we want to know exactly what it takes to survive the long road, not just the easy one. Bring on September.
