The Team That Finished Last Is Coming For Zak Butters
Zak Butters is one of the most electric midfielders in the competition, and at the end of 2026, he becomes a restricted free agent. Let that sentence sit for a moment, because the ripple effects could reshape the entire league.
The Free Agency Rules That Actually Matter Here
Here’s the thing about restricted free agency that a lot of casual fans gloss over — it sounds limiting, but in practice it can be anything but. When Butters hits the market at the end of 2026, Port Adelaide will have the right to match any offer he receives from another club. On paper, that sounds like a safety net for the Power faithful. In reality, it’s a high-stakes poker game, and the right opponent can force Port’s hand in ways that could genuinely cripple them.
Compare that to what’s happening with Zac Bailey at Brisbane. Bailey is technically a restricted free agent at the same time, but realistically functions as an unrestricted one. The Lions are cap-squeezed to the point where matching a market-rate offer for him would mean gutting the rest of the list. It’s a brutal but honest situation. Power are in a similar bind, just one rung higher on the ladder. If a rival club tables a monster offer for Butters, the question isn’t just whether Port want to match it — it’s whether they can without setting their entire salary structure on fire.
Why the Wooden Spooner Is the Perfect Villain Here
This is where it gets genuinely interesting. The club that finishes bottom of the ladder in 2026 will have three things in abundance: salary cap space, top draft picks, and legit motivation to swing big on a marquee signing. Rebuilding clubs don’t just need picks — they need stars who can make the younger players believe the project is real. Butters, who’ll be 25 at the end of 2026 and approaching the absolute peak of his powers, fits that profile perfectly.
Think about it this way. A club that’s been wooden-spooning doesn’t have the same financial commitments as a finals contender. They’re not locked into multi-year deals with a core of premiership-window players. They have breathing room. And breathing room is exactly what you need to table an offer so ridiculous that Port Adelaide has to genuinely sweat over the response.
Which Club Are We Actually Talking About?
Now, I’m not going to pretend I have a crystal ball on who finishes last in 2026. Anyone who tells you they know is either lying or selling something. But a few clubs are in the danger zone heading into next season, and the ones worth watching are those that already have a decent foundation of youth but are still a couple of years away from competing for finals. A club in that spot — one that maybe finishes 17th or 18th but has genuine talent on the list — would be the most dangerous possible suitor for Butters.
They’d be offering him a big-money deal in a city where he could be the guy, not just one of several stars. That’s a compelling pitch for any footballer at 25. Add in the draft picks and cap space to build a real team around him, and you’ve suddenly got an offer that’s about more than just dollars.
Port Adelaide’s Cap Problem Is Real
I want to be fair to Power fans here, because this isn’t a gotcha — it’s just the maths. Port Adelaide are not a cheap list to run. They have Jason Horne-Francis locked in long-term. They have Connor Rozee. They have multiple high-end players demanding top-bracket salaries, and their recent finals success means those players’ market value is only going up. Matching a monster restricted free agency offer for Butters on top of all that isn’t just difficult — it could theoreticlaly compromise their ability to retain anyone else for the following two or three seasons.
And here’s the kicker: the club making the offer knows exactly that. That’s the point. It’s not always about actually landing the player — sometimes a restricted free agency play is about forcing your rival to spend so much matching the deal that they weaken themselves in the process. Chess, not checkers.
What This Means for Brisbane — And Why Lions Fans Should Care
Okay, I hear you — why is a Brisbane fan writing about Zak Butters and Port Adelaide’s cap troubles? Fair question. But the Bailey situation makes this directly relevant to us. If Port Adelaide are forced to fork out a massive salary-match for Butters, that’s one less club with the cap flexibility to make a run at players Brisbane might want to keep or recruit. It also sets a market precedent for what elite midfielders cost, which affects our own negotiations.
More than that, though — as a Lions fan I find the Bailey parallel genuinely fascinating and a little heartbreaking. Two players, same free agency class, same restricted status on paper. But the financial reality for the clubs they’re at couldn’t be more different. Bailey is almost certainly leaving because we can’t make the numbers work. Butters might stay simply because Port make it work by the skin of their teeth. The rules are the same; the outcomes are shaped entirely by where you sit on the salary ladder.
The Best Case Scenario for a Wooden Spooner Club
Let’s say a struggling club does go all-in on Butters at the end of 2026. What does that actually look like? You’d be looking at an offer somewhere north of $1.2–1.4 million a season over a five or six year term. That’s the kind of number that makes restricted free agency genuinely threatening. Pair that with a list that has three or four first-round picks in the next two years, a coach who’s bought into the project, and a clear pathway for Butters to be the focal point of the entire midfield, and the pitch practically writes itself.
Port would then face a decision: match it and cripple their cap for half a decade, or let one of the competition’s best young mids walk out the door. No notes on how uncomfortable that situation would be for Ken Hinkley’s successor (or Hinkley himself, depending on how 2026 goes).
It’s Still Two Years Away — But Start Watching Now
None of this is imminent. Butters is presumably laser-focused on helping Port Adelaide go deep in finals this year, and so he should be. But the AFL trade and free agency landscape rewards preparation, and clubs that are in rebuild mode right now should absolutely have his name on the whiteboard for 2026 planning.
The wooden spoon is a painful thing. It’s embarrassing, it’s demoralising, and it comes with a lot of hard conversations. But it also comes with leverage — the kind of financial and draft leverage that, used correctly, can flip a franchise’s fortunes in a single off-season. Making a genuine play for Zak Butters would be the ultimate expression of that leverage, and I, for one, would be absolutely here for the drama.
Whether Port can hold on to him is one of the most interesting storylines in the competition over the next 18 months. Watch this space.
